NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas futures rose 2.10% to $3.30/mmBtu on June 23 after the EIA weekly storage report showed a 48 Bcf injection, missing the consensus estimate of 55 Bcf. Total working gas in storage reached 2,490 Bcf, 4.2% above the five-year average of 2,390 Bcf.
The smaller-than-expected injection reflects higher cooling demand as temperatures rose across the US Southeast and Texas. NOAA data shows cooling degree days were 15% above the 10-year average for the reporting week, driving increased gas-fired power generation.
Dry gas production remained stable at 103.5 Bcf/d, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. Production has been range-bound between 102.5 and 104.0 Bcf/d since April, indicating that the supply growth of 2024–2025 has plateaued as producers maintain capital discipline.
The storage surplus to the five-year average has narrowed from 8.2% at the start of injection season (April 1) to 4.2% currently. At current injection rates, the market is on track to enter withdrawal season (November 1) with approximately 3,400 Bcf, within the normal range.
The storage deficit trajectory is tightening. If injections continue to miss forecasts, the end-of-season storage could fall below 3,350 Bcf, which would support $3.40–3.60 prices. Layer winter hedges at $3.20–3.30 for Q4 and Q1 contracts.