US natural gas producers have announced cumulative voluntary curtailments of 1.8 Bcf/d year-to-date, according to data from the Texas Railroad Commission and state-level production filings. EQT, Chesapeake, and Coterra have all reduced activity, with the gas-directed rig count falling to 98, down 12 rigs from the 2026 peak in March.
Despite these cuts, dry gas production has only declined 0.7 Bcf/d month-on-month to 104.5 Bcf/d. The gap between announced curtailments and actual output reflects the difficulty of reducing associated gas from oil-directed wells in the Permian Basin, which accounts for roughly 30% of US gas output.
The Permian Basin gas rig count actually rose by 2 this week to 32, as oil-directed drilling in the Midland and Delaware sub-basins continues. Associated gas from oil wells is largely price-insensitive — it is produced regardless of gas prices. This structural output component limits the effectiveness of voluntary gas-curtailment programs.
The flat production trajectory suggests the market needs deeper or more sustained cuts to absorb the storage surplus. At current injection rates, storage will reach 3,800 Bcf by November 1, approaching the record 3,860 Bcf set in November 2023.
Voluntary gas curtailments are ineffective when associated gas from the Permian keeps flowing. The only reliable supply response comes from sustained sub-$3 gas, which would pressure marginal dry-gas producers. Buyers should assume elevated storage through Q3 and price their gas procurement accordingly.