The Henry Hub futures curve presents one of the clearest seasonal opportunities in years. Summer pricing (June-August) is anchored around $2.80-3.00/MMBtu due to strong production and above-average storage, while winter 2026-27 contracts (December-March) trade at $4-5+ due to anticipated LNG export demand tightening.
For procurement teams, this contango structure creates several strategic options. Buyers with winter 2026-27 exposure could benefit from calendar-year strips that smooth the premium, or use collars to protect against upside while participating in any further downside if storage remains comfortable through the injection season.
Weather-normalized storage projections suggest the current surplus of about 6% above the five-year average will narrow through the injection season. The EIA's June STEO raised production forecasts by 4.6 Bcf/d for 2027 relative to January, which would add to storage cushions. However, the Qatar LNG outage provides a structural demand pull that limits downside.
Goldman Sachs holds a $4.15/MMBtu target for 2026-27, while Morgan Stanley's structural bull case of $5/MMBtu assumes storage deficits re-emerge over winter 2026-27. The EIA sees a $3.34/MMBtu H2 2026 average. The wide dispersion of forecasts reflects genuine uncertainty about the pace of LNG export ramp and summer heat.
The summer-to-winter spread of $1.00-2.00/MMBtu is unusually wide. If you have winter baseload requirements, consider fixing a portion now: the risk is that a hot summer draws down storage faster than expected, pushing the entire curve higher. A collar structure buying $3.50 calls and selling $2.50 puts for winter months offers balanced protection.