US liquefied natural gas exports are running at near-record levels, with feedgas deliveries to liquefaction terminals reaching 12.5 billion cubic feet per day in the first week of June. This represents a 15% increase year-on-year and effectively captures all output from currently operational trains.
The Plaquemines LNG terminal in Louisiana, operated by Venture Global, is in the final commissioning phase and expected to reach full commercial operation by Q3 2026. At full capacity, Plaquemines will add 1.5 Bcf/d of additional LNG feedgas demand, increasing total US export capacity to approximately 14 Bcf/d.
This structural demand growth is occurring against a backdrop of flat supply. US dry natural gas production has stabilized at approximately 104 Bcf/d, constrained by moderated drilling activity in the Haynesville and Permian basins as producers maintain capital discipline despite higher prices.
The implications for Henry Hub pricing are significant. With LNG feedgas absorbing approximately 13% of total US production and growing, the domestic market faces a structural tightening that lifts the base price. Analysts at Goldman Sachs project that the US market shifts from being 'long' gas to structurally 'balanced' by late 2026.
European and Asian buyers are contracting aggressively for US LNG volumes. Asian spot LNG prices (JKM) trade at $14.50/mmBtu, creating a $11.35/mmBtu spread over Henry Hub that more than covers liquefaction, shipping, and regasification costs.
Structural LNG demand growth is the most important long-term driver for Henry Hub prices. For US buyers, the Q3 wind-down of Plaquemines commissioning means spot gas could tighten from August onward. Secure winter baseload hedges before July, when LNG demand becomes a binding constraint on available supply.