The EIA forecasts US LNG exports will increase substantially through 2027. In 2026, Corpus Christi Stage 3 will commission Trains 5-7 (0.6 Bcf/d combined), and Golden Pass LNG will bring online its first two trains (1.4 Bcf/d). By 2027, peak export capacity will exceed the current 18.3 Bcf/d.
Global LNG dynamics have shifted significantly. The March 2026 attack on Qatar's Ras Laffan facility damaged two liquefaction trains representing 17% of export capacity, with repairs estimated to take up to five years. This structural outage increases pull on US LNG and supports higher Henry Hub prices in the medium term.
US summer natural gas demand is expected to average 76.7 Bcf/d in June-August 2026, up 2.3% year-over-year. Electric power sector gas burn is forecast at 43.7 Bcf/d from June-September, essentially flat year-over-year as renewables growth limits further gains despite 2% higher total electricity demand.
The EIA's June STEO notes that supply growth will outpace demand growth by 0.5 Bcf/d in 2026, keeping inventories above the five-year average. However, in 2027, expected demand growth will exceed supply growth by 1.6 Bcf/d, putting upward pressure on Henry Hub prices into the mid-$3.40s/MMBtu.
The structural LNG growth story is intact despite seasonal maintenance. US buyers should watch the Qatar repair timeline if it extends beyond current estimates, additional US LNG will be pulled to global markets. Consider locking in some 2027 volumes at current forward prices, as the EIA projects a $3.46/MMBtu average for 2027.