US LNG exports are providing a critical floor under Henry Hub prices. With feedgas flows at 13.8 Bcf/d, US liquefaction terminals are operating at 98.6% of capacity. The wide spread between Henry Hub and global LNG benchmarks — JKM at $15.77/mmBtu and TTF at $40.65/MWh — ensures strong economic incentive for maximum utilization.
Plaquemines LNG’s Train 1 reached full commercial operation in May, adding 1.2 Bcf/d of export capacity. Corpus Christi Stage 3 is on track to commission its second train by September, which would add another 0.8 Bcf/d. EIA projections show US LNG export capacity reaching 16.2 Bcf/d by year-end.
European gas storage is 72% full, ahead of the 5-year average of 68%. While this is supportive, Europe’s need to refill without Russian pipeline supply means continued strong demand for US LNG cargoes through Q3. European gas buyers have increased long-term US LNG contract volumes by 15% year-over-year.
Asia remains the premium market. Japanese and South Korean utilities are actively securing spot cargoes ahead of the summer peak, with JKM prices maintaining a $3-5/mmBtu premium over European benchmarks.
The LNG arbitrage ensures US natural gas prices have a structural floor near current levels. Any dip to $3.00-3.10 will likely be met by increased LNG buying interest, creating a floor. Buyers should note that this “lower bound” is rising as new export capacity comes online, structurally tightening the US gas market.