Henry Hub futures traded at $3.09/MMBtu on June 15, extending losses after the EIA reported a 108 Bcf weekly injection, above the 101 Bcf consensus. Total working gas storage reached 2,686 Bcf, 151 Bcf above the five-year average. All storage regions remain within historical ranges.
US dry gas production averaged 107.7 Bcf/d in 2025 and is forecast to rise to 111.0 Bcf/d in 2026, an increase of 3.3%, according to the EIA's June STEO. Preliminary March 2026 data showed production at 110.9 Bcf/d, the highest March daily rate on record. The Permian and Haynesville regions drive most of the growth.
LNG exports have moderated to 16.3-16.5 Bcf/d in June from 17.1 Bcf/d in May due to seasonal maintenance at Golden Pass and Freeport LNG. The EIA expects LNG exports to average 17.2 Bcf/d in 2026, up from 15.1 Bcf/d in 2025, as new trains at Corpus Christi Stage 3 and Golden Pass LNG ramp up.
The EIA's June STEO projects Henry Hub averaging $3.34/MMBtu in H2 2026, down from earlier forecasts due to higher production expectations. The 12-month futures strip shows pronounced contango, with December 2026 contracts above $4.00/MMBtu while summer 2026 averages $2.80-3.00/MMBtu.
Summer gas at $2.80-3.00/MMBtu with above-average storage offers a favorable window for locking in a portion of baseload needs. The winter 2026-27 strip at $4+ signals tightening fundamentals from LNG export growth. Consider layering calendar strips rather than buying peak-winter months individually.