Henry Hub natural gas futures held steady at $3.15/mmBtu on June 10, with the market consolidating around this level for the fourth consecutive session. The price range has been remarkably narrow ($3.11-3.21) over the past week, reflecting a market in equilibrium between injection-driven supply and weather-driven demand.
The April-October injection season started with working gas storage at 1,829 Bcf, near the five-year average. The market must inject approximately 2,000 Bcf by October 31 to reach comfortable pre-winter levels of 3,800 Bcf. Current injection rates are pacing 7% above the five-year average, supported by rising production from the Permian Basin and Haynesville Shale.
Power sector demand is providing a supportive floor. Record summer temperatures across the US South and Midwest are driving natural gas-fired electricity generation 8% above year-ago levels, with air conditioning loads setting new records in Texas, Florida, and Arizona.
LNG feedgas demand remains steady at approximately 12.5 Bcf/d, near full utilization of existing export capacity. The Plaquemines LNG terminal in Louisiana is expected to reach full commissioning by Q3 2026, adding 1.5 Bcf/d of export capacity and tightening the domestic supply-demand balance.
The $3.00-3.50 range is well-supported by power demand and LNG structural growth. Procurement teams with winter gas requirements should begin layering in hedges at $3.00-3.15. The 7% storage surplus provides comfortable supply but does not discount the risk of a cold December depleting inventories quickly.