Myanmar Tin Supply: Wa Mining Ban Enters Third Year

The Wa State mining ban, imposed in August 2023 by the Wa Central Committee, remains in full effect as of mid-2026, with no official timeline for resuming mining operations at the Man Maw and associated tin-tungsten mines. The ban was initially imposed to reorganize the mining sector under Central Economic Planning Committee control, but the political transition has stalled amid the broader Myanmar civil conflict.

Tin concentrate exports from Myanmar to China have stabilized at roughly 40% of pre-ban levels, driven by processing of existing surface stockpiles and small-scale artisanal mining in areas outside strict Wa control. Total Myanmar tin concentrate supply to China is estimated at 18,000-20,000t/year in tin content terms, down from 45,000-50,000t/year before the ban.

The supply gap has been partially filled by increased production from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Indonesia, and Australia. DRC tin production rose to an estimated 15,000t in 2025, from 12,000t in 2023. Alphamin Resources' Bisie mine expansion is adding 3,000t/year of tin-in-concentrate capacity. Indonesian tin exports stabilized at 65,000t/year after the government streamlined export permit procedures in 2024.

Geopolitical risk in the DRC is rising. The 2026 election cycle and renewed conflict in North Kivu province — adjacent to tin-producing areas — introduce supply disruption risk. If DRC production is disrupted, the global tin deficit would widen sharply, given the lack of alternative supply sources that can ramp up quickly.

The ITSG estimates the global tin deficit at 18,000t in 2026, the fourth consecutive year of deficit. Cumulative deficits over 2023-2026 have drawn down global visible inventories by an estimated 55,000-65,000t. Above-ground stocks are now at critically low levels by historical standards.