Myanmar’s tin concentrate exports remain at 40-50% of pre-August 2023 levels, entering the third year of Wa State mining restrictions. The Wa authorities have not signaled any timeline for resuming full production, and the policy appears aimed at resource conservation and environmental remediation rather than temporary market management.
The impact on global supply is material: Myanmar supplied 12-15% of global tin concentrates in 2022-2023, feeding mainly Chinese and Malaysian smelters. With output cut by more than half, these smelters have scrambled to secure alternative feed from Africa (DRC, Rwanda, Nigeria) and South America (Bolivia, Peru), but substitute supply is limited and of lower grade.
Indonesia’s export decline compounds the supply problem. Indonesian refined tin exports fell 23% year-on-year through May 2026, as the government tightened RKAB export licensing and environmental compliance requirements. PT Timah, the state-owned producer, reported a 14% decline in first-half output due to depleted onshore alluvial reserves.
The global refined tin market was in a deficit of 14,000 tonnes in 2025, according to ITRI estimates, and the deficit through May 2026 is tracking at 7,500 tonnes. New supply from the Alphamin Bisie mine in DRC and the San Rafael expansion in Peru has partially offset Myanmar and Indonesian losses, but not fully.
The price signal is working to incentivize new supply, but tin projects have long lead times. Woodcross’s Minsur expansion in Peru and the revived Hemerdon project in the UK will not deliver meaningful output until 2027-2028. In the interim, the market relies on demand destruction to balance.
Tin supply is structurally constrained, and buyers should plan for continued tightness. The deficit has been partially masked by softening electronics demand, but any demand recovery will quickly expose the supply gap. For Q3-Q4 procurement, consider multi-quarter contracts with smelters to secure allocation. Explore alternative tin sources (recycled tin from electronics scrap, African concentrates) to diversify supply chain risk.