Manganese is simultaneously one of the most mature and most overlooked commodity markets in the world. Over 20 million tonnes of ore are mined annually, the overwhelming majority destined for steel furnaces where manganese acts as a desulfurizer and alloying agent essential to every ton of steel produced. Yet as the energy transition accelerates, a second demand axis is rapidly emerging: battery-grade manganese in the form of high-purity manganese sulfate monohydrate (HPMSM), the critical precursor for NMC and LMFP cathodes.
Ore prices recover to 17-month highs. After a volatile 2024 that saw Australian production hammered by Tropical Cyclone Megan and a mid-year price correction, the manganese ore market entered 2026 on strong footing. In March 2026, South Africa's United Manganese of Kalahari (UMK) offered 36% grade semi-carbonate lump at US$4.45/dmtu CIF China — up $0.13 month-on-month. High-grade Australian lump (46% Mn) from Consolidated Minerals (CML) was quoted at US$5.40/dmtu for March shipment, while Gabonese 44.5% lump from Eramet Comilog stood at US$5.25/dmtu for April cargoes. These levels represent a sustained recovery from the mid-2025 trough and reflect tight seaborne availability as smelters restocked after the Lunar New Year lull.
Steel remains the demand bedrock. The US Geological Survey's 2023 Minerals Yearbook confirms that global steel production accounts for "more than 90%" of manganese consumption; the International Manganese Institute puts the figure even higher at ~97%. China alone consumes over half of global manganese output, meaning any shift in Chinese steel production or alloy demand directly shapes the ore price floor. In early 2026, Chinese electrolytic manganese metal (EMM) prices stabilized near 17,000 CNY/t during the Spring Festival holiday — a level viewed by the market as a near-term bottom, with expectations of a post-holiday rebound as steel mills resume procurement at scale.
The battery revolution: small base, explosive growth. Battery-grade manganese currently represents less than 3% of global consumption, but that is changing fast. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence projects manganese demand from batteries to increase more than eight-fold over the 2020s, driven almost entirely by two chemistries: nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) and lithium-manganese-iron-phosphate (LMFP). SFA Oxford estimates that by 2025, roughly 30% of new EV models could incorporate LMFP cathodes, each requiring 50–60 kg of manganese per vehicle. Adamas Intelligence data shows that from January to April 2025, the average EV battery contained roughly 2.7 kg of manganese, with battery-electric vehicles averaging 4.2 kg — and total manganese use grew despite a rising LFP market share, simply because EV production volumes rose faster.
The LMFP cathode material market was valued at approximately US$450 million in 2024 and is forecast to grow at an 18.5% CAGR through 2033, reaching over US$2 billion. LMFP batteries themselves are expected to expand from US$1.85 billion in 2025 to US$6.79 billion by 2034 — a 15.55% CAGR — as automakers from Tesla to Volkswagen integrate manganese-rich chemistries to reduce reliance on cobalt and nickel while improving energy density over standard LFP.
Supply concentration: three countries, 63% of output. The global manganese supply chain is remarkably concentrated. South Africa produced 7.2 million tonnes in 2023, Gabon 4.6 million tonnes, and Australia 3.3 million tonnes — together accounting for approximately 63% of global mine output. Africa as a whole holds roughly 75% of global manganese reserves. This geographic concentration creates persistent logistical risk: the 2024 closure of South32's Groote Eylandt mine in Australia (due to Cyclone Megan), labour strikes at South African operations, and rail constraints on Eramet's Moanda mine in Gabon have all demonstrated that manganese supply chains are fragile. Australia's Groote Eylandt has an estimated remaining reserve life of just five years (to ~2029), adding a structural supply risk to the medium-term outlook.
On the processing side, China dominates HPMSM production, but Western governments are pushing back. The US Inflation Reduction Act has spurred over US$2.1 billion in domestic manganese projects, including Electric Metals USA's Minnesota facility targeting 50 ktpa of HPMSM by 2026. The EU's Critical Raw Materials Act lists manganese as a strategic resource with a target of 50% domestic processing capacity by 2030. Meanwhile, China's battery-grade manganese sulfate market tightened sharply in early 2024, with prices surging to levels not seen since June 2022, and the rally continued into late 2025 and early 2026 as HPMSM utilization rates held at 51–54% despite strong demand from PCAM and cathode producers.
Pricing outlook: firm ore, firming chemicals. Seaborne manganese ore prices are expected to remain supported in the US$4.00–5.50/dmtu range for Q2 2026, with high-grade Australian and Gabonese material commanding a premium. Chinese EMM prices are forecast to rebound from the 17,000 CNY/t floor. In the chemical markets, North American manganese sulfate prices posted a "firm to mildly bullish" trend through Q4 2025, with early 2026 forecasts pointing to a "stable to slightly firm" market as EV and energy-storage demand chains continue to support pricing. The global battery-grade manganese sulfate market — valued at roughly US$530 million to US$1.12 billion in 2024 — is projected to reach US$2.18–2.65 billion by 2033, with CAGRs ranging from 10% to 17% depending on the forecast.
Manganese procurement strategy must now serve two distinct demand profiles: a mature, high-volume steel channel and a fast-growing, high-spec battery channel. For steel buyers, South African 36% ore at current ~$4.45/dmtu offers a competitive benchmark, but watch for supply-side shocks from Gabonese rail constraints and Australian mine depletion. For battery-material buyers, HPMSM is tightening — secure medium-term supply agreements, particularly as Western processing capacity remains nascent. The eight-fold demand growth projection for battery manganese this decade means that waiting another 12–18 months to lock in HPMSM volumes could mean paying significantly higher premiums. Diversification away from Chinese HPMSM processing is underway, but will take years to materially shift the supply balance. The message is clear: manganese is no longer just a steel commodity.