LME lead traded sideways at $1,945/mt on June 19, with the market finding support in the $1,900-1,950/mt range that has held since early May. SHFE lead rose 2.01% to 16,980 CNY/t, reflecting steady Chinese battery production demand.
Battery demand accounts for roughly 81% of global refined lead consumption. The data center segment is a growing contributor: UPS battery installations for AI data centers have added incremental demand, though it remains small relative to automotive replacement. In China, electric bike battery replacement provides steady offtake.
On supply, secondary lead (from recycled batteries) now accounts for roughly 60% of global refined production, and recycling capacity keeps expanding. This growing secondary supply has capped any significant upside moves, keeping the market in a relatively narrow $1,900-2,050/mt range for much of 2026.
The market remains finely balanced. ILZSG data suggests a small global surplus of roughly 30,000-50,000 tonnes for 2026, but this could flip to deficit if battery demand growth accelerates or mine supply disruptions reduce primary output. The downside risk: a slowdown in automotive replacement demand.
Lead remains rangebound. The $1,900-1,950/mt zone has held as support through multiple tests. For battery supply chains, current levels offer reasonable entry points for H2 coverage. The key risk is not a sudden spike but a slow creep higher if secondary supply growth decelerates.