SHFE lead slipped ¥135 to ¥16,710/mt on June 22, a 0.80% decline that mirrored the LME's downward drift. The SHFE-LME lead spread has narrowed in recent weeks, with SHFE lead trading at approximately the LME equivalent plus standard logistics costs — no arbitrage incentive, no distortion. Both exchanges are telling the same story: a market with more lead than it needs.
Chinese lead-acid battery exports, which account for roughly 12% of domestic lead demand, declined 6% year-on-year in Q1 2026, according to China customs data. The EU's anti-dumping investigation into Chinese lead-acid battery imports, initiated in January 2026, has cast a shadow over export volumes. A preliminary determination is expected in July — if duties are imposed at the 15–25% level being discussed, Chinese battery exports to Europe could drop by 20–30%, freeing up 50,000–80,000 tons of annual lead demand.
Domestic replacement battery demand provides a floor. China's vehicle parc — now the world's largest at over 340 million units — generates steady replacement battery demand of roughly 1.8 million tons of lead annually. This baseload demand, plus lead's 98% recycling rate in mature markets, means lead prices rarely crash the way nickel or zinc can. The metal tends to grind lower in surplus conditions rather than plunge.
If the EU imposes anti-dumping duties on Chinese batteries in July, expect 50,000–80,000 tons of annual lead demand to shift from export to domestic Chinese markets — and domestic Chinese lead prices to soften further as that metal finds a home. For European lead buyers, the dynamic is opposite: fewer cheap Chinese battery imports mean tighter European battery supply and potentially higher European lead premiums. If you're a European buyer, lock in Q3 lead at current premiums before the July determination. If you're sourcing from Asia, wait — the Chinese surplus is likely to deepen.