LME three-month lead settled at $1,880/mt on June 26, down $14 (0.74%) from the prior session and below the psychologically important $1,900 level. The contract has lost 6.51% over 30 days, weighed by the seasonal demand slowdown in the replacement battery market — lead’s dominant end-use at 85% of global consumption.
The summer months typically see reduced replacement battery demand as extreme temperatures (both heat and cold) moderate in major markets, reducing battery failure rates. This seasonal pattern is well-established in lead markets, with June-August historically the weakest demand period.
LME lead stocks drew 0.38%, providing some support. But the more significant supply signal comes from the concentrates market, where spot TCs for lead have risen to $100-115/dmt, indicating improved mine supply. Glencore’s McArthur River in Australia and Teck’s Red Dog in Alaska both reported strong Q2 production, replenishing the concentrate pipeline.
SHFE lead futures declined 0.69% to ¥16,580/mt, tracking LME. Chinese lead-acid battery production fell 2.3% month-on-month in May, consistent with the seasonal pattern. E-bike battery demand — a significant Chinese lead consumer — also entered its annual summer trough.
The one counter-seasonal factor supporting lead is the tightness in scrap supply. Secondary lead smelters, which produce roughly 65% of global refined lead, are facing higher scrap battery collection costs. This is keeping the secondary lead premium elevated and providing a floor under LME prices at around $1,850/mt.
Lead is in a seasonal demand trough, and buyers have pricing power through August. For battery manufacturers, this is the optimal period to build inventory for the Q4 replacement season when prices typically rise 5-8%. The LME below $1,900 is a buying opportunity. Watch scrap supply — if secondary smelter margins compress further, primary lead premiums could widen, partially offsetting the LME decline.