Lead's secondary market is tighter than the headline price suggests. SMM reports that waste lead-acid battery supply in China is limited, with e-bike scrap around CNY 9,750-9,800/t in recent weeks. Smelters are raising bids to secure feedstock.
Secondary crude lead quotes have stayed firm around CNY 15,350/t ex-tax. When refined lead pulls back, scrap sellers have not cut prices because raw material availability remains constrained. That keeps secondary smelters from expanding output quickly.
The global balance is still close. ILZSG data cited by Discovery Alert point to a projected 2026 surplus of about 110,000 tonnes. For procurement, the risk is regional: global balance does not guarantee local scrap availability.
Ask secondary lead suppliers for scrap battery sourcing updates before renewal. If scrap bids rise above CNY 9,800/t, expect refined lead premiums to firm.