The secondary lead sector faces a significant structural challenge. Production overcapacity coincides with waste battery undersupply, an imbalance that has driven up scrap battery prices and intensified competition among secondary lead producers. With recycling accounting for roughly 55% of global refined lead supply, this dynamic directly impacts market prices.
The lead-acid battery recycling market is valued at approximately $14.7 billion in 2026 and is projected to grow at a 10.24% CAGR to $29 billion by 2034, according to Fortune Business Insights. Asia-Pacific dominates with 65.86% of global recycling capacity. Large players are investing: Exide Industries commissioned a modern lead-battery recycling plant in Gujarat, India in 2025 to secure sustainable raw material.
Despite the growth in recycling capacity, structural overcapacity means smelter margins are compressed even when LME prices are stable near $2,000/t. The competition for waste batteries is particularly intense in mature markets with established collection infrastructure, where secondary lead has been gaining share as regulations discourage primary lead mining.