Lead continues to trade just under the $2,000 per tonne pivot, with the latest LME cash price at $1,957/t. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group projects a refined lead surplus of 102,000 tonnes in 2026, supporting expectations of rangebound prices in the $1,900-2,050 band for the remainder of the year.
The surplus is driven by recovering smelter output, especially from secondary (recycled) plants. Chinese smelter production has resumed and increased since January, adding to global availability. Global refined production is forecast to rise about 1% to 13.47 million tonnes, with gains from Brazil, India, and Kazakhstan partially offset by lower output in China and the UK.
On the demand side, lead-acid batteries are seeing growing demand from data centers and 5G/telecom backup infrastructure, as well as strong e-bike replacement demand in China. Around 80% of modern lead use is in batteries. The structural shift toward stationary storage applications is providing a demand floor that prevents prices from breaking below $1,900 despite the surplus backdrop.