Lead prices have remained range-bound for the past 18 months, trapped between structural surplus and cost support. LME three-month metal traded at $2,006/t on June 9, within the $1,800-2,100/t range that has held since early 2025. The ILZSG estimates a 2025 surplus of approximately 82-91 kt and forecasts another substantial surplus for 2026.
LME lead inventories have risen dramatically, from 21,500 tonnes at the start of 2023 to over 404,000 tonnes by late 2025, including a 71,000-tonne surge in September 2025 linked to refined lead inflows from India into Singapore warehouses. The persistent stock builds have encouraged record speculative short positions at various points and capped any meaningful price rally.
Despite the headline surplus, there are signs of tightening at the margins. LME nearby spreads have firmed as queue times to load out lead from Singapore warehouses stretched to 95 days, indicating stock financing activity rather than genuine oversupply. Stronger import demand into Asia has also provided support.
The global lead market has been in surplus every year since 2022, with the exception of a single year (2022). This persistent oversupply reflects the dominance of recycling in the lead supply chain: secondary (recycled) lead accounts for approximately 67% of global refined output, and recycling capacity continues to expand globally.
On the demand side, lead-acid batteries for automotive SLI (starting, lighting, ignition) and industrial UPS applications provide a stable consumption base. However, the long-term trend toward lithium-ion batteries in automotive and energy storage applications represents a structural headwind for lead demand growth.
Lead buyers benefit from a well-supplied market with persistent surplus. The $1,800-2,100/t range is well-established, and significant deviation is unlikely without a major supply disruption. Use the upper end of the range for hedging and the lower end for spot purchases. Monitor LME queue times as a leading indicator of physical tightness.