FACT: SMM Weekly Review, May 22, 2026 LME three-month lead opened the week at $1,983.5 per metric tonne and experienced a volatile session. Early-week trading was sluggish, with prices dipping to a weekly low of $1,961/mt as bearish sentiment weighed on the market. Prices then strengthened progressively, reaching a weekly high of $2,010/mt before closing at $2,002.5/mt — an increase of $18.5/mt, or +0.93% from the weekly open.
FACT: SMM Scrap Battery Report, May 22, 2026 The recovery was underpinned by shifting dynamics in the scrap battery market. At the beginning of the week, as lead prices weakened, smelters lowered mainstream scrap battery procurement prices by 60–70 yuan/mt. Recyclers panic-sold their material, causing smelter inventories to rebound temporarily. By mid-week, arrivals tightened, quotes reached a stalemate, and most smelters held prices steady.
FACT: SMM Scrap Battery Report, May 22, 2026 Approaching the weekend, as LME and SHFE lead prices strengthened, East China smelters took the lead in raising EV battery procurement prices by 50–60 yuan/mt, although other regions had yet to follow. Smelter raw material inventories pulled back in the mid-to-late part of the week, and restocking demand for raw materials is expected to provide ongoing support for procurement prices in the near term.
FACT: SMM SHFE Lead Brief, May 22, 2026 On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,700 yuan/mt and fluctuated around the daily moving average, touching a high of 16,770 yuan/mt and recording a three-day winning streak, closing up 90 yuan/mt (+0.54%). For the week, SHFE lead rose 165 yuan/mt (+1.0%). On the capital front, bearish positions were reduced, driving the recovery.
LME lead has reclaimed the psychologically important $2,000/mt level, supported by stabilizing scrap battery costs and emerging smelter restocking demand. However, downstream offtake remains cautious and secondary lead supply is set to increase as smelters resume production, which may cap upside in the near term. Prices are expected to consolidate with a fluctuating bias.
Action: The LME lead recovery from $1,961 to $2,002.50 on May 22 is primarily short-covering and scrap cost support, not fundamental demand strength. Lead buyers should not chase this rally — the ILZSG surplus narrative caps upside near $2,050. Use any approach toward $2,050 to layer on short-term hedges or lock in selling prices for Q3 volumes.
Horizon: Rangebound $1,950-$2,050/mt through mid-Q3. Reassess if SHFE lead breaks above 17,000 yuan/mt on volume.
Trigger: Watch LME lead on-warrant stocks — a sustained decline below 65,000 tonnes signals tightening and would force a reassessment of the surplus thesis.