FACT: Kitco / ILZSG, April 23, 2026 The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) published its latest forecasts on April 23, projecting a refined lead metal surplus of 109,000 metric tonnes for the full year 2026. The forecast points to a mildly oversupplied market, reinforcing the view that the lead market is likely to remain rangebound rather than staging a sustained bullish breakout in the near term.
FACT: Kitco / ILZSG, April 23, 2026 According to the ILZSG, global demand for refined lead metal is anticipated to increase by 1.1% in 2026 to 13.72 million tonnes. On the supply side, world refined lead metal output is expected to rise by 1.3% to 13.83 million tonnes. The 1.3% growth in output exceeding the 1.1% growth in demand represents the fundamental driver behind the projected 109,000-tonne surplus.
FACT: SMM Weekly Review, May 22, 2026 The macro supply-demand picture from ILZSG aligns with recent on-the-ground observations in China. LME lead traded in a $1,961–$2,010/mt range during the week of May 18–22, closing at $2,002.5/mt on May 22. While prices recovered from a weekly low, the recovery was driven more by scrap battery cost support and short-covering than by fundamental demand strength — consistent with an oversupplied market structure.
FACT: SMM SHFE Lead Brief, May 22, 2026 On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, while SHFE lead recorded a three-day winning streak and closed the week at 16,735 yuan/mt (up 1.0% for the week), the broader price trend has been sideways. Multiple smelters are resuming production in the near term, and secondary lead output is edging up — dynamics that could further reinforce the surplus narrative and constrain price upside.
The ILZSG's 109,000-tonne surplus forecast for 2026 provides the key macro backdrop for the lead market. With supply growing faster than demand, the path of least resistance is likely sideways-to-lower unless scrap battery cost support becomes strong enough to force smelter cutbacks. A rangebound market around $1,950–$2,050/mt on LME appears the most probable scenario for the coming months, with the surplus cap on prices partially offset by scrap supply tightness.
Action: The ILZSG's 109,000-tonne surplus forecast for 2026 caps lead price upside near $2,050/mt LME. Lead buyers should operate with a shorter coverage window (30-60 days) rather than locking in extended term contracts at current levels. The surplus bias combined with scrap-battery cost support creates a rangebound market — use price dips toward $1,950 to secure volumes.
Horizon: The surplus dynamic persists through H2 2026. Reassess in Q4 when scrap battery supply tightens seasonally.
Trigger: Watch Chinese secondary lead smelter operating rates — a sustained decline below 55% signals that scrap supply tightness is overcoming the surplus, which would put a floor under prices and end the buyer's advantage.