China's secondary lead production continues to expand at a steady pace, with output rising 5% year-on-year in Q2 2026. The growth is driven by new recycling plant capacity and improved collection networks for end-of-life lead-acid batteries.
China now produces approximately 60% of its refined lead from recycled sources, up from 45% a decade ago. The trend is expected to continue as environmental regulations favor secondary production over primary smelting, which carries higher emission costs.
In mature markets like the US and Europe, lead-acid battery collection rates already exceed 98%, and secondary lead accounts for over 80% of refined production. The scope for further supply growth from recycling in these regions is limited, but Chinese expansion continues to add marginal tonnes.
The rising share of secondary lead has a stabilizing effect on prices. Unlike primary production, which fluctuates with mine output and concentrates availability, secondary supply tracks battery sales volumes with a 3-5 year lag, providing a steady and predictable supply stream.
The growth in secondary production is the primary reason lead prices have lagged the rally in other base metals. With secondary supply continuing to expand, lead's price ceiling is likely to remain intact.
Secondary production growth provides a reliable price ceiling for lead. Buyers can be confident that spikes above $2,100/mt will be temporary as secondary supply responds. Maintain standard coverage levels and avoid paying premiums for term contracts.