Lead is stable near the $2,000/mt decision line. Rzzro's LME lead read is $1,974.5/mt, while SHFE lead is 16,715 CNY/t, up 0.39%. Fastmarkets expects LME lead to hover around $2,000/t into 2027 on broadly balanced fundamentals.
Battery demand remains the support. Data center UPS demand and replacement battery demand keep refined lead consumption firm. At the same time, secondary lead supply has grown, with recycling now representing about 55% of refined supply in global market data.
The balance is narrow. If secondary supply tightens, refined lead can move quickly because demand is less discretionary. If battery demand softens, the same $2,000/t level becomes resistance.
For battery and UPS supply chains, keep coverage near $1,950/mt and avoid waiting for a confirmed break above $2,000/t. Watch scrap battery availability as the leading indicator.