Iron ore's technical setup is defensive. Dalian support sits near CNY 760/t, with resistance in the CNY 770-780/t area.
Seaborne prices are testing $100/t. The December 2026 futures area around $95/t signals that the market expects gradual softening.
Analyst forecasts cluster around $90-$100/t for 2026. The World Bank projects about $97/t, while other surveys point to a similar range.
For buyers, the downside case is clear. A break below CNY 760/t would confirm that China demand weakness and Simandou supply are overpowering restocking.
What this means for buyers
Use CNY 760/t and $90-$100/t as downside guides. Hedge selectively until China restocking or supply disruption changes the setup.