Iron ore's technical picture has deteriorated after four consecutive daily declines pushed prices to $102/mt. The break below the 200-day moving average at $103.50 is a significant bearish development, as the 200-day MA had provided support since March. The daily chart shows lower highs and lower lows since May 20, a classic downtrend structure.
The RSI at 39 is approaching oversold territory but has not yet reached the 30 threshold that has historically preceded mean-reversion bounces. The MACD line crossed below its signal line on May 28 and is diverging further, confirming bearish momentum. The stochastic oscillator is at 22, closer to oversold than the RSI.
The $100 level is the immediate psychological support. A close below $100 would be the first time since January 2026. Below $100, the $95-97 zone represents the next major support, corresponding to the January 2026 lows and the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the October 2025 to April 2026 rally.
On the upside, resistance is at $105 (former support) and $108-110 (the range top from April-May). A move above $108 would invalidate the short-term downtrend. However, with the fundamental headwind of China's output cap, a sustained recovery above $110 appears unlikely without a major supply disruption.
The break below the 200-day MA at $103.50 confirms the downtrend. For procurement, this is a wait-and-see setup. Set buy orders at $97 (20% of annual volume) and $92 (another 20%). Do not chase the market above $105. The combination of Chinese output caps and falling mill margins will cap any recovery.