Iron ore’s technical picture reflects a market in limbo, with prices consolidating in a tight $98–$105 range as traders await catalysts from Chinese economic data. The RSI at 48 is neutral, providing no directional bias. The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, a classic pattern preceding a significant directional move once the compression resolves.
The 50-day moving average at $105 has acted as resistance for the past two weeks, with each attempt to break above being sold into. A decisive move above $105 would target the 100-day MA at $110 and potentially the March highs near $115. On the downside, the 200-day MA at $98 has proven to be reliable support, reinforced by the psychologically important $100 level.
Open interest on SGX iron ore swaps has declined 8% over the past month as market participants reduced positions ahead of key data releases. The decline in open interest during a consolidation phase suggests uncertainty rather than directional conviction. The CFTC positioning data shows speculative accounts are net short, while commercial hedgers are net long, a configuration that has historically preceded short-covering rallies.
The technical indicators are consistent with a market that is building a base for the next leg. The daily MACD is near its zero line, and a bullish crossover would provide a buy signal. The ATR (14) has declined to $3.5, down from $6.0 in April, confirming the low-volatility consolidation phase. Iron ore typically experiences a volatility expansion after such compressed periods.
The narrow trading range offers limited tactical opportunity. Buyers with H2 exposure should watch the $105–$98 range boundaries. A break below $100 with conviction would signal the start of the bearish phase toward $90. Consider indexed pricing rather than fixed for H2 contracts to benefit from expected downward movement. If the Chinese stimulus narrative re-emerges, the $105 level could break quickly.