Global seaborne iron ore supply is entering a period of significant expansion. Guinea's Simandou project shipped first ore in late 2025 and aims for 60 Mt in 2026 with eventual capacity exceeding 120 Mt per year. Fitch estimates additional supply of 50-75 Mt from new projects will cap price growth.
Australia, the dominant supplier with over half of global seaborne trade, projects export volumes of 993 Mt in 2026, up 2.6%. Rio Tinto delivered 326.2 Mt from Pilbara in 2025 and continues to ramp up from Onslow, Western Range, and Iron Bridge. The Australian government forecasts benchmark prices declining to $79-85/t by 2026-27.
Brazil's iron ore production is forecast to grow 5.9% in 2026 to 462.9 Mt, supported by Vale's Capanema mine (15 Mt added in September 2025), S11D expansion, and Vargem Grande ramp-up. Vale guides 335-345 Mt for 2026. Brazil exported a record 416.4 Mt in 2025, with 71% going to China.
The supply expansion is occurring against weakening Chinese steel demand. China's crude steel output fell 4.4% in 2025 to 961 Mt. The property sector remains in crisis, and apparent consumption of major steel products was falling 3.1% week-over-week in early June 2026. The combination points to a growing market surplus.
New supply from Simandou, Australian expansions, and Brazilian growth will create a well-supplied market. This favors buyers: expect improved negotiating leverage with suppliers as competition increases. The structural surplus outlook supports index-linked pricing and shorter contract durations.