FACT: Iron Ore is at $101.60 $/mt. The supply-demand signal is port stocks and Simandou overhang; no unconfirmed disruption is required for buyers to adjust coverage discipline.
The key procurement read-through is flow quality. If confirmed flows tighten, price strength has a foundation. If flows stay loose, rallies are easier to fade.
RZZRO VIEW: Coking coal and steel spreads matter, but SGX iron ore remains the clearest China steel demand read-through. That means buyers should track the physical spread before changing hedge ratios.
For procurement, the action is to separate confirmed availability from narrative risk. Confirmed flow changes deserve coverage; headline risk deserves monitoring.
Watch port stocks and Simandou overhang before changing supplier terms. Use confirmed flow data to decide whether to pull forward or delay coverage.