Simandou is moving from project risk to market supply. First commercial shipments reached China in early 2026, and 2026 volumes are estimated around 20 million tonnes.
The long-term ramp is much larger. Analysts expect Simandou to reach about 120 Mtpa by 2030, equal to roughly 7-8% of global seaborne trade at full capacity.
China port inventories are the near-term cap. Elevated stocks give mills flexibility and reduce the need to chase every short-covering rally.
For procurement, the message is structural. Simandou does not eliminate rallies, but it lowers the probability of a sustained price spike unless China demand surprises higher.
Keep hedge ratios flexible. Simandou supply and high port stocks argue against aggressive long-dated coverage unless China restocking accelerates.