Iron ore (62% Fe fines) traded at $101.14/mt, essentially unchanged on the session, as the market consolidates in the $95-105/mt range that has held since April 2026. China's crude steel output in May was 86.2 million metric tons, up 1.5% year-over-year but in line with the government's 2026 production guidance of 1.03 billion mt.
Port inventories across China's major receiving terminals rose 2.1 million mt week-over-week to 148.5 million mt, according to Mysteel data. The increase reflects steady seaborne arrivals and moderate blast furnace restocking. Port stocks remain within the normal range of 140-155 million mt.
DCE iron ore futures closed at 702 CNY/mt, down 0.8% on the session. The futures curve remains in mild backwardation, with the front-month contract at a $2/mt premium to the deferred Q4 contract, suggesting spot market tightness is not expected to intensify.
Blast furnace capacity utilization at major Chinese steel mills averaged 89.5% in the week ending June 19, down 0.3 percentage points from the prior week, according to CISA. Three mills in Tangshan conducted scheduled maintenance outages, reducing daily hot metal output by approximately 58,000 mt.
Mysteel's survey of 247 Chinese steel mills shows finished steel inventory at 15.2 million mt, down 1.8% week-over-week and 5.2% below the seasonal average. The inventory draw supports near-term steel production, which in turn supports iron ore demand. However, the approach of the summer demand lull (July-August) may slow restocking.
Iron ore remains in a balanced zone. Buyers can operate on just-in-time procurement at the current $95-105/mt range. Build inventory on dips below $95/mt. Monitor Chinese steel margins — if mill profitability falls below 50 CNY/mt, steel output cuts will follow and pull iron ore lower.