Iron ore 62% Fe fines CFR China held at $101.62/mt on June 12, essentially flat on the day. Chinese import prices (CNY basis) settled at 771.5 CNY/t on June 15. Prices have been range-bound between $99-105/t since April, as high port inventories and weak steel demand offset supply disruptions.
Chinese port inventories reached 160 million tonnes in mid-June, according to industry data. Stockpiles peaked at 165.6 Mt in January, the highest on record, before easing modestly. The elevated inventory level provides a substantial buffer and limits upside price potential even with supply-side events.
Chinese crude steel production continues to contract. March 2026 output was 87.0 Mt (down 6.3% year-over-year) and April 2026 was 83.6 Mt (down 2.8% year-over-year). The 2025 full-year total of 961 Mt was the lowest since 2018, reflecting the protracted real estate crisis.
Despite lower steel output, iron ore imports remain strong. China's 2025 iron ore imports hit a record of approximately 1.27 billion tonnes. Analysts attribute this to lower-quality domestic ore requiring higher-grade imports and restocking activity. However, May 2026 imports fell nearly 6% month-over-month as steelmakers limited purchases.
Iron ore at $101-102/mt is near the upper end of the 2026 forecast range ($90-102/t). With Chinese port stocks at 160 Mt and steel output contracting, the balance of risk is to the downside. Maintain inventory-light procurement and defer non-essential cargoes to weaker months.