Iron ore port inventories across China rose to 148.6 Mt in the week ending June 19, an increase of 2.3 Mt from the prior week. The build is now running above the seasonal average, with inventories at levels not seen since the post-Lunar New Year restocking peak in February.
Australian iron ore shipments reached 78.4 Mt in May, up 2.1% from April, as Rio Tinto and BHP both reported strong production from their Pilbara operations. Rio Tinto shipped 33.2 Mt in May, its highest monthly volume since December 2025.
Brazilian shipments rose 3.5% month-on-month to 36.2 Mt in May, driven by Vale's S11D expansion ramp-up. The combined seaborne supply increase is adding to port inventory pressure in China, where steel mills are running at reduced utilization rates.
Mysteel has reported that blast furnace utilization rates at Chinese mills fell to 74.6% this week, down from 75.8% at the end of May. Steel mill margins remain under pressure, with HRC mill margins at approximately 35 CNY/t, down from 80 CNY/t in April.
Growing port inventories and falling mill utilization point to a softening iron ore market. Buyers should hold coverage at current levels and target $96-98 for additional Q3 tonnage. The supply-demand balance is shifting to a modest surplus through Q3.