Australian iron ore shipments rebounded to 44.2 million mt in the third week of June from Port Hedland and Dampier, up 12% week-over-week, as mining operations recovered from two tropical cyclone events in May that forced temporary port closures. Despite the recovery, Rio Tinto and BHP have indicated Q2 2026 shipments will be at the lower end of annual guidance ranges.
Rio Tinto shipped approximately 19.2 million mt from Pilbara operations in the week ending June 20, up 14% from the prior week. The company's Q2 2026 guidance implies 78-82 million mt of shipments, below the 84 million mt achieved in Q2 2025. The ramp of the Gudai-Darri mine expansion — adding 5 million mt/year of nameplate capacity — has been slower than planned.
BHP's Western Australia Iron Ore (WAIO) operations shipped approximately 16.8 million mt in the same period. The company guided toward Q2 shipments of 67-71 million mt, at the lower end of its full-year guidance of 282-294 million mt. The South Flank mine continued its ramp-up, reaching 70% of its 80 million mt/year design capacity.
Vale's S11D mine in Brazil's Carajás complex produced 19.5 million mt in Q1 2026, up 4% year-over-year. The company's Q2 production is expected to be higher seasonally, partially offsetting the Australian supply shortfall. Vale guided toward full-year production of 340-350 million mt.
The supply disruptions tightened the seaborne market in May, lifting the Platts 62% Fe index above $100/mt briefly. With Australian shipments normalizing and Vale ramping seasonally, the supply side is expected to be well-balanced for Q3 2026 barring further weather events in the Australian cyclone season.
The cyclone-related supply blip is temporal. With Australian shipments normalizing and Vale ramping, Q3 supply should be comfortable. If DCE futures dip below 680 CNY/mt, consider building 30-day inventory positions for the post-summer construction pickup in September.