HRC futures have entered a strong technical uptrend, with the June 9 surge confirming a breakout from the $1,050–$1,150 consolidation range that held through most of May. The 3.91% gain was accompanied by above-average volume, lending credibility to the breakout. The RSI at 64 is in bullish territory with headroom before reaching overbought levels above 70.
The moving average structure is bullish. The 50-day moving average at $1,050 is converging with the 200-day MA at $1,030, and a golden cross is imminent. Historically, a golden cross in HRC has preceded sustained upward moves lasting 2–4 months. The last golden cross, in August 2025, preceded a rally from $950 to $1,150.
Resistance at $1,200 is the next major technical hurdle. This level represents the February 2026 highs and is a psychologically important round number. A weekly close above $1,200 would open the path to $1,300, the September 2025 cyclical high. Support has formed at $1,050 (50-day MA), with stronger support at $1,000 (the April consolidation low).
Volume analysis shows increasing participation on up-days and relatively low volume on pullbacks, a pattern characteristic of a healthy uptrend. Open interest has risen 12% over the past month as new longs enter the market. The commitment of traders report shows that commercial hedgers have increased their short positions, which is typical at higher price levels and does not necessarily signal a top.
The breakout from the consolidation range warrants attention for buyers. If $1,200 is broken, further upside toward $1,300 is likely. Commercial buyers should consider accelerating Q3 procurement if the breakout holds, as waiting for a pullback may mean missing the move. For hedging, the strong uptrend suggests using call spreads rather than outright longs.