The US steel market operates under a unique protectionist framework that has fundamentally reshaped domestic pricing dynamics. Section 232 tariffs were raised from 25% to 50% in June 2025 and show no signs of being rolled back. Steel Market Update consistently identifies the tariffs as the decisive factor in the spread between US domestic and landed offshore HRC prices.
Import offers for mid-2026 delivery are landing near $880/st base including tariffs, compared to domestic prices of approximately $1,109/st. While the spread has narrowed from earlier in the year, it remains wide enough to keep most buyers focused on domestic supply. The gap between US hot-rolled prices and landed offshore product tightened through Q2 but held at a premium that favors domestic mills.
The World Steel Association forecasts global steel demand remaining essentially flat in 2025 at 1.75 billion tonnes, growing only modestly to 1.77 billion tonnes in 2026. Meanwhile, global steelmaking capacity is set to increase by 165 million tonnes by 2027 — creating a supply-demand imbalance that would pressure prices in an open market. Section 232 insulates US producers from this overhang.
Domestic mills have responded to the protected environment with disciplined supply management. AISI data shows raw steel production hitting multi-year highs through Q1 2026. New domestic flat-rolled capacity is being incentivized by the favorable policy environment, with reshoring and Buy America provisions adding demand tailwinds.
The tariff regime is the single most important variable for US steel buyers. With 50% Section 232 tariffs showing no rollback signals, domestic prices will remain well above global benchmarks. The key risk for buyers is import availability — even marginal import offers at $880/st are attractive against $1,109/st domestic, but volumes are limited by quota restrictions. Build relationships with multiple domestic mills to ensure allocation access, especially if capacity tightens further.