Hot rolled coil steel prices surged 3.21% to $1,156 per short ton on Friday, reaching the highest level since April 2026. The rally accelerated after the Biden administration signaled an extension of Section 232 tariffs on steel imports, maintaining a 25% tariff that restricts foreign supply.
The price action is supported by disciplined domestic mill production. U.S. steel mill capacity utilization held at 78.2% in the latest American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) report, below the 80% threshold that historically triggers increased imports and price competition. Nucor, Cleveland-Cliffs, and Steel Dynamics have maintained conservative order books.
Import data reinforces the tight supply picture. Steel imports in May were 2.1 million short tons, down 12% year-over-year and below the 2015-2025 average of 2.8 million tons. The combination of tariffs, trade cases, and lengthy customs processing has created a de facto import wall.
Lead times have extended to 6-8 weeks from order, up from 4-5 weeks in April, signaling that mill backlogs are growing. Buyers report that early June orders are now being quoted for August delivery, a further tightening signal that supports continued price strength in the near term.
For steel procurement teams, the HRC rally to $1,156/st is driven by real supply constraints, not speculative positioning. Lead times of 6-8 weeks mean buyers need to plan further ahead than usual. If you need H2 2026 tonnage, locking in now at $1,150-$1,160 is prudent — the trade policy tailwind is unlikely to reverse before the election cycle. Monitor mill utilization above 80% as a potential topping signal.