US HRC import lead times have shortened to 8–10 weeks from 12–14 weeks in Q1 2026, as domestic mill capacity utilization rose to 78% and import arrivals normalized following the Q1 logistics congestion. US HRC prices at $810/st are down $45 from the March peak of $855/st.
Domestic mill capacity utilization reached 78% in June, up from 76% in Q1 and approaching the 80% level that historically signals a balanced market. Nucor, Cleveland-Cliffs, and US Steel have all maintained consistent order books, with lead times of 4–6 weeks for domestic HRC.
Import arrivals of HRC totaled 1.1 Mt in May, up 8% from April, as cargoes booked in Q1 arrived. The import surge has contributed to the price softening, particularly in the Gulf Coast and West Coast markets where imported material competes most directly with domestic supply.
The US manufacturing PMI contraction to 49.2 in June signals downstream demand weakness. Service center inventories have risen to 3.2 months of supply, up 0.3 months from April, indicating that end-user demand may not absorb the increased availability.
Shorter lead times reduce urgency. No need to extend coverage beyond 60 days. US HRC could test $780–$800/st if manufacturing PMI stays in contraction territory. Use index-linked contracts rather than fixed-price to capture any downside. The domestic market is shifting from tight to balanced.