US hot rolled coil steel rallied to $1,156.00/st on the NYMEX HRC contract, up +3.21% for the session. The domestic HRC price has risen 14% since the March low of $1,012/st, supported by Section 232 tariff protection at 25% and disciplined production from domestic mills.
US mill capacity utilization reached 78.5% in June, up from 77.3% in May, according to AISI data. Nucor, Cleveland-Cliffs, and US Steel are all running near effective capacity, and no major capacity additions have been announced beyond the limited Big River Steel expansion.
Import licenses for steel mill products fell 8% month-over-month to 425,000 st in June, reflecting the continued deterrent effect of Section 232 tariffs and the Department of Commerce's active enforcement of country-specific quota allocations. Imported HRC offers limited arbitrage at current CFR NOLA prices of approximately $1,050/st.
Demand from non-residential construction — the largest HRC-consuming sector — remains steady, supported by CHIPS Act semiconductor fabs, IRA-related energy infrastructure, and reshored manufacturing facilities. Dodge Construction Network reports that non-residential starts were up 6% year-to-date through May.
On the supply chain side, lead times at major mills extended to 5-7 weeks from the order date, up from 4-5 weeks in April, indicating healthy order books. Spot availability for prompt delivery is limited, with most mill capacity allocated to contract customers through Q3 2026.
Secure Q3 order book allocations now — lead times are extending. Spot HRC is likely to trade in the $1,100-1,250/st range through Q3 given tariff protection and mill discipline. Consider 3-month fixed-price contracts rather than spot index-based pricing to avoid upside risk.