U.S. hot rolled coil prices continue to strengthen, with CME HRC futures reaching $1,164/short ton in early June. The uptrend, which began in late 2025, has been sustained by disciplined mill production strategies, maintenance-related supply constraints, and steady demand from automotive and construction sectors.
North American mills have maintained a production discipline that contrasts sharply with previous cycles. Rather than maximizing capacity utilization when prices rise, mills are keeping order books controlled and allocating tonnage to maintain pricing power. This strategy has been reinforced by weekly price increase announcements through April, May, and early June, which have been absorbed by the market.
The spread between U.S. and Asian HRC prices remains historically wide. Indian export HRC is available at approximately $631/ton, while Chinese HRC prices are similarly depressed. However, trade protections including Section 232 tariffs, anti-dumping duties, and the evolving EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism limit the ability of Asian supply to arbitrage the U.S. premium.
Import volumes into the U.S. remain constrained by tariff barriers and quota systems. The limited import availability has given domestic mills substantial pricing power, and buyers have been forced to accept higher prices due to the lack of competitive alternatives. This dynamic is expected to persist through 2026.
The U.S.-Asia HRC spread of over $500/ton is unprecedented and reflects structural barriers to import arbitrage. Domestic buyers should expect continued mill pricing power. Consider negotiating long-term supply agreements with annual price adjustment mechanisms rather than relying on spot purchases, and evaluate import alternatives under quota allocations.