US HRC steel futures are trading at $1,156 per short ton on the CME as of late June 2026, while spot benchmark levels tracked by TradingEconomics are at $1,195 per metric ton. This is the highest pricing environment since March 2023 and represents a roughly 35% increase year-over-year. The rally has been underway for 39 consecutive weeks, adding approximately $360/st.
The primary driver is supply discipline. US mills are running at capacity utilization rates in the mid-70% range — historically strong but deliberately below maximum to keep supply tight. CRU reported lead times extending for sheet and plate products, with service centers indicating that unexpected demand surges are difficult to source in the spot market. Nucor and US Steel have both signaled that mill discipline is an active strategy, not a production constraint.
Import compression has amplified the effect. Year-to-date 2025 flat-rolled imports (HRC, CRC, HDG) were down about 38% year-over-year, and that trend has continued into 2026 under the current tariff regime. Reduced import availability means domestic mills control a larger share of supply, reinforcing their pricing power.
New capacity is on the horizon but not yet online. US Steel's Big River 2 electric arc furnace (EAF) is advancing toward its 3 million ton per year target by end-2026. Nucor's new West Virginia sheet mill (3 million tons per year) is expected online by the end of the year. Market commentary warns of possible overcapacity if structural demand from data centers and construction fades in the later part of the decade.
Demand is supported by several structural factors: data center construction has reportedly tripled in three years, energy infrastructure spending is rising, and reshoring-driven manufacturing investment continues. The American Iron and Steel Institute projects 2026 US steel demand growth at approximately 1.8%, which is moderate but sufficient to absorb current production levels.
The market is as tight as it has been since 2023. Lead times are extended and spot tons are hard to find. If you have a steel requirement for Q3-Q4 2026, negotiate contract tonnage now rather than relying on spot availability later in the year. The wild card is the new EAF capacity coming online by end-2026 — if you can structure a mid-2027 contract with volume flexibility, you may be able to capture lower pricing once Big River 2 and Nucor WV ramp up. Watch the import data: a sudden increase in import permits would be the first sign the rally is peaking.