Nucor increased its HRC Consumer Spot Price by $10/st to $1,125 on June 15, continuing weekly increases that have been in place since late January. The largest single hike was $15/st on March 2. Steel Dynamics raised its prices similarly, with SDI's Q1 2026 average selling price reaching $1,193/st, up $86 sequentially.
The US HRC futures curve has repriced sharply. June and July futures breached $1,100/st, with the peak migrating to August-September near $1,140. Deferred months are pricing in a ~$1,000 band, reflecting expectations that tightness will persist but moderate over the longer term. SMU describes the market as 'extremely limited spot availability' with 'long lead times.'
Sheet inventories at service centers are at the lowest level since May 2021, according to Steel Market Update. Multiple mills are accepting orders for contract customers only, with little to no spot availability for hot rolled or cold rolled products. Mill lead times are at 'strong levels.'
SDI reported record steel shipments of 3.6 million tons in Q1 2026, with energy, non-residential construction, automotive, and industrial sectors leading demand. The company noted that 'flat rolled steel pricing has rebounded from the recent lows experienced in the second half 2025.'
The rally is supply-driven as much as demand-driven. Total US flat-rolled imports fell 42% in 2025 and remain controlled by the 50% Section 232 tariff. Domestic mills have focused on contract supply commitments at the expense of spot availability. The monthly operating rate averaged 76% in January, per AISI data.
The market has shifted from 'buyers wait for the peak' to 'buyers accept higher offers due to limited alternatives' mode. With sheet inventories at four-year lows and mills prioritizing contracts, spot buyers face a difficult market. The futures curve suggests this tightness persists through Q3 before moderation in Q4. Procurement strategy: fix Q3 volumes now, leave Q4 open if you have flexibility, and watch import flows for any signs of relief.