US hot-rolled coil prices surged 6.22% to $1,195 per short ton on Monday, reaching levels not seen since early 2023. The weekly raw steel production report showed US mills produced 1.872 million net tons with capacity utilization at 81.1%, up significantly from 76.6% in the same week of 2025, reflecting robust demand and tight supply.
Domestic mills are exercising deliberate pricing discipline. With Section 232 tariffs of 25% constraining import competition, US producers are running near full order books and selectively allocating spot tons. Ryerson reports HRC spot availability as 'tight,' with lead times extending to 6-8 weeks for some mill sources.
The US premium versus global HRC prices has widened considerably. While Chinese HRC futures trade at approximately $550/ton and European HRC near $750/ton, the US commands a $400-600 premium due to tariff protection, logistics advantages, and domestic mill consolidation. This premium is structural rather than cyclical, reflecting the post-232 trade architecture.
Demand fundamentals support the elevated pricing. Infrastructure spending under the IIJA is generating steady demand for flat-rolled products, while automotive production remains solid at elevated levels. Energy sector demand for pipe and plate is also contributing to the firm order books at domestic mills. The North American HRC market is projected to grow from $18.65 billion in 2026 to $24.16 billion by 2034.
US mills have clear pricing power, and imports are structurally constrained by tariffs. For procurement teams, this means the US HRC premium over global prices is structural, not temporary. Cover 60-75% of Q3 requirements via mill contracts at current levels. Leave some exposure open for potential import quotas or tariff adjustments as policy wildcards.