HRC steel prices remained well-supported near $1,178/st as major mills continued their push for higher prices. Nucor’s weekly HRC index came in at $1,175/st, up $20 week-over-week. Cleveland-Cliffs and US Steel have both announced price increases of $30-50/st for July delivery.
The price increases are sticking because spot availability is constrained. Service center inventories have drawn down to 8.2 million tons, the lowest level since March 2024. Lead times at major mills have extended to 6-8 weeks, indicating healthy order books.
Demand from the construction sector remains a bright spot. Non-residential construction spending rose 0.6% month-over-month in May, according to Census Bureau data, with highway and bridge construction up 1.2%. The infrastructure bill’s continued disbursement is supporting structural steel demand.
Auto sector demand is steady but not growing. US light vehicle sales came in at 15.6 million annualized units in May, flat versus the prior month. EV production growth is providing incremental demand for advanced high-strength steels, but conventional ICE vehicle production is declining.
The US HRC market is in a sweet spot: mill discipline, tight inventories, and steady demand. Buyers should not expect a near-term price correction. Secure Q3 volumes at current levels through mill allocations rather than waiting for the spot market to soften. The risk is skewed to the upside given lead times of 6-8 weeks.