US HRC mill lead times have extended to 6-7 weeks for new orders, up from 5 weeks in May and the longest since Q1 2024. The extension reflects strong domestic demand combined with limited import availability as Section 232 restrictions and pending safeguard petitions constrain offshore supply.
Imports from Vietnam and South Korea, which together accounted for 18% of US HRC imports in 2025, declined 25% quarter-on-quarter in Q2. The drop is attributed to the pending safeguard petition filed by Cleveland-Cliffs and Nucor in April, which created regulatory uncertainty for importers.
Service center inventories have declined to 4.2 weeks of supply, down from 4.5 weeks in April and below the 5-year average of 4.6 weeks. The destocking phase that began in Q4 2025 is over, and service centers are now actively replenishing in a tightening market.
Auto sector demand for HRC remains stable. US light vehicle sales in May were 15.7 million SAAR, slightly above consensus. The construction sector is also a positive demand driver, with non-residential construction spending up 4.2% year-on-year through April.
Extended lead times mean buyers should order Q4 tonnage now. With imports constrained and service centers restocking, the market favors mills. Buyers who wait for a price pullback risk being unable to secure prompt delivery. Forward contracts with quarterly pricing offer the best protection.