Chinese HRC export offers have declined to $535/mt FOB, down $20/mt from April levels, as Southeast Asian buyers reduce procurement amid rising inventories. Vietnamese HRC imports totaled 1.8 million metric tons in May, down 12% month-on-month, according to Vietnam Customs data.
The Southeast Asian HRC market is facing oversupply as multiple regional suppliers compete for limited demand. India, Japan, and South Korea are all actively offering HRC into the ASEAN market, with Indian mills at $550/mt CFR Vietnam and Japanese mills at $560/mt CFR.
ASEAN total HRC imports reached 4.2 Mt in May, down 8% month-on-month, as buyers worked through inventories accumulated during the Q1 2026 restocking period. The inventory draw-down cycle is expected to continue through July, putting downward pressure on import prices.
The US Section 232 tariff framework continues to shape trade flows. With US HRC prices at $810/st — a $170 premium over export markets — spot cargoes continue to divert to the US. However, US HRC demand has moderated with the softening manufacturing sector, limiting the pull effect.
The $535/mt FOB is a reasonable entry point for Q3 requirements. ASEAN buyers are in a wait-and-see mode, and the inventory destocking cycle runs through July. If Chinese export offers fall below $520/mt, consider increasing coverage for Q4 delivery.