Hot-rolled coil steel surged to $1,203 per short ton on June 9, its highest price since March 2023, extending a rally that has lifted prices 36.24% over the past twelve months. The move is driven by the combination of punitive import tariffs and robust domestic demand that has stretched mill capacity.
Section 232 tariffs on steel imports remain at 50% (doubled from 25% in June 2025), effectively closing the US market to most foreign suppliers. Only the UK enjoys a reduced 25% rate under the US-UK steel agreement. The tariff wall has created a bifurcated market: US prices at $1,203/st versus European HRC at $820/st (€750) and Asian at $620/st.
US mill lead times have extended to 8-10 weeks, up from the typical 4-5 weeks, as order books fill through Q3. Nucor, Cleveland-Cliffs, and US Steel are all running near capacity utilization of 82%, but additional ramp-up is constrained by the availability of skilled labor and maintenance turnaround schedules.
The tariff regime was further adjusted on June 8, 2026 when President Trump modified the threshold for 'entirely American' steel from 95% to 85% US content. This change allows more flexibility for US-based service centers using imported semi-finished steel but does not materially increase import volumes.
Domestic demand remains healthy across construction, automotive, and heavy equipment sectors. Non-residential construction spending is up 8% year-on-year, driven by manufacturing facility construction (semiconductor fabs, battery plants) and data center builds.
US HRC at $1,200+ is expensive by historical standards, but the tariff wall makes it the only game in town. Buyers should: (1) lock in Q3 requirements immediately as lead times stretch, (2) evaluate imported semi-finished steel (slabs) through service centers using the 85% US content rule, and (3) push for quarterly fixed-price contracts rather than spot-indexed.