The World Gold Council expects global gold mine production to rise modestly in 2026 but warns that energy shortages in key mining regions could disrupt output. Supply growth is structurally limited: Morgan Stanley highlights that mine output cannot expand quickly to meet demand surges, so excess demand transmits into price rather than volume.
Central banks remain the dominant demand-side force. The World Gold Council expects official sector buying in 2026 to remain solid at levels close to 2025, driven by reserve diversification and geoeconomic risk. UBP estimates that central banks will continue buying at roughly 800 tonnes per year, equivalent to 26% of annual mine output.
Investment demand is shifting composition. While ETF demand slowed sharply in Q1 2026 (down 55% according to some estimates), bar and coin demand is expected to increase, particularly in India and emerging markets. Goldman Sachs notes that speculative COMEX positioning remains elevated, indicating sustained bullish sentiment.
On the supply side, Russia's Natural Resources Ministry reported 2025 gold output of 480-485 tonnes. Valcambi, one of the world's largest refiners, appointed Simone Knobloch as CEO in June 2026, with a stated focus on due diligence in sourcing. Refining capacity remains adequate but ESG and regulatory compliance costs continue to rise.
The structural deficit in gold markets means deep price dips are unlikely. Central bank buying provides a persistent floor. For physical procurement, prioritize LBMA good-delivery supply chains with strong due diligence credentials, and layer hedges for any unexpected dovish Fed shift that could push gold above $4,500/oz.