J.P. Morgan maintained its year-end 2026 gold price target of approximately $6,000 per ounce in a research note dated May 18, 2026, even as it trimmed its full-year average forecast to $5,243/oz from $5,708/oz previously. The bank cited softer near-term investor demand — describing client interest as having "dried to a trickle" — but remains bullish on a second-half recovery.
The bank's analysts, led by Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Strategy, stated: "We retain our bullish medium-term outlook and forecast that after the immense energy and inflation uncertainty clears, gold demand from investors and central banks will again re-intensify over 2H26." Earlier in February, J.P. Morgan had raised its target to $6,300/oz, one of the most bullish calls on Wall Street.
J.P. Morgan lowered its 2026 central bank purchase estimate to 640 tonnes from 800 tonnes previously, after net reported purchases slowed in Q1. However, the bank's central case still assumes combined central bank and investor demand averaging roughly 585 tonnes per quarter — a level that history shows is sufficient to drive prices significantly higher when supply is constrained at approximately 1,230 tonnes per quarter.
Gold's share of global financial assets has risen to 2.8%, according to J.P. Morgan Global Research — up from roughly 1.5% in 2023 — reflecting both price appreciation and increased allocation. The bank notes that even modest changes in investor allocation could have outsized effects on price, given the relatively small size of the above-ground gold market relative to global financial assets.
The J.P. Morgan forecast aligns with a broad consensus of major institutional forecasts. Goldman Sachs maintains a $5,400/oz year-end target. Wells Fargo Investment Institute lifted its target to $6,100–$6,300/oz. ANZ cut its year-end target to $5,600. UBS targets up to $5,900/oz. Deutsche Bank sees potential for $6,000+ in a less dollar-dependent world. Spot gold was trading near $4,520/oz as of May 22, 2026 — roughly 16% below its January record high but still 33% above year-ago levels.
J.P. Morgan notes that COMEX aggregate gold futures open interest and volume have remained depressed, net Managed Money futures open interest has stagnated at low levels, and ETF flows have been light. This inactivity in the paper market contrasts sharply with the physical market, where Asian bar and coin demand hit 474 tonnes in Q1 and central banks continue accumulating at elevated rates.
Rzzro — Procurement, quantified. • Reduce risk. Increase leverage.
Why It Matters: The divergence between weak paper-market sentiment and strong physical-market fundamentals creates what many analysts view as a significant asymmetric opportunity. With gold's share of global financial assets still below 3% and structural central bank demand at ~60t/month, even a moderate re-allocation by Western institutional investors could drive prices substantially higher in H2 2026.