Goldman Sachs reiterated its year-end 2026 gold price target of $5,400/oz in a research note dated May 15 and reported May 18, 2026, while announcing a significant upward revision to its central bank demand estimates (: Goldman Sachs, May 15/18, 2026). The bank now projects that central banks will purchase an average of 60 tonnes per month through the remainder of 2026, up sharply from its previous nowcast of 29 tonnes per month.
The revision followed the discovery of a data gap in UK trade data that had understated sovereign buying for approximately eight months. Goldman analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven noted that the update brings central bank purchases to roughly 720 tonnes on an annualized basis, broadly consistent with the World Gold Council's independent data showing 244 tonnes of purchases in Q1 2026 alone (: Goldman Sachs, May 2026).
JPMorgan concurrently maintains one of the most bullish targets on Wall Street at $6,000/oz by year-end 2026, with full-year central bank buying projected at 755 tonnes (: JPMorgan, May 18, 2026). The bank expects a second-half recovery in gold as "immense energy and inflation uncertainty clears," according to head of precious metals strategy Gregory Shearer. JPMorgan had earlier raised its target to $6,300/oz in February before paring the full-year average estimate.
Goldman Sachs characterized risks to its forecast as "significantly skewed to the upside" because private-sector investors may diversify further into gold amid lingering global policy uncertainty. "A sharp reduction in perceived risks around the long-run path for global fiscal and monetary policy would pose downside risk if it were to cause liquidation of macro policy hedges," the analysts cautioned (: Kitco, May 19, 2026).
The broader institutional consensus is building. Wells Fargo Investment Institute lifted its target to $6,100–$6,300/oz. UBS targets up to $5,900/oz. Deutsche Bank sees potential for $6,000+ in a less dollar-dependent world. ANZ cut its year-end target to $5,600 but remains bullish. At current spot prices near $4,521/oz, the gold market is pricing in approximately 19% upside to the Goldman Sachs target and 33% to JPMorgan's target.
The central bank-driven thesis is supported by the World Gold Council's outlook, which expects sovereign purchases to remain "meaningful" throughout 2026. With 68% of central banks planning to increase gold holdings, gold's share of global financial assets has risen to 2.8%, up from roughly 1.5% in 2023, suggesting room for further institutional allocations (: JPMorgan Global Research, May 2026).
The divergence between current spot prices ($4,521) and major bank year-end targets ($5,400–$6,000) represents a potential 19–33% upside. With Goldman Sachs projecting 60t/month of central bank buying and the paper market still depressed, the physical market fundamentals suggest asymmetric upside potential. Procurement teams should evaluate forward hedging at current levels, particularly given the structural sovereign demand floor.