Global gold ETF holdings fell by 8.4 tonnes in the week ending June 19, the largest weekly drawdown since early May. SPDR Gold Shares, the largest physically backed fund, saw outflows of $420 million, reducing its total holdings to 834 tonnes.
The outflow pattern is broad-based. European-listed gold ETFs lost 3.8 tonnes, while North American funds shed 4.1 tonnes. Asian-listed funds were flat, with modest buying out of China partially offsetting Western selling.
Real yields are the primary driver. The US 10-year TIPS yield sits at 1.95%, above the 1.8% level that historically correlates with gold ETF liquidation. As long as real rates stay positive and the Fed maintains its hawkish stance, the pressure on gold ETFs is likely to continue.
This pattern mirrors early 2025, when gold ETF outflows ran at 6-10 tonnes per week for six consecutive weeks before reversing. The current macro setup suggests a similar duration, though the lower absolute price may attract tactical buyers at $4,100 or below.
Falling ETF holdings signal weaker short-term demand but also reduce overhead supply that can be liquidated into a further selloff. Physical gold buyers should target the $4,100-4,120 zone for spot purchases rather than the current level.