COMEX gold futures settled at $4,202.00/oz on June 23, down 0.52% from the prior session, as a strengthening US dollar and rising real yields reduced the appeal of non-yielding bullion. The dollar index climbed to 104.8 following Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller's remarks that rate cuts remain "data-dependent" and unlikely before September.
Gold has rallied 15% year-to-date, driven by central bank purchases — 1,050 tons in 2025, led by China, Poland, and India — but the June consolidation reflects a market waiting for clearer monetary policy signals. The CME FedWatch Tool now prices a 68% probability of a September cut, down from 78% a week ago.
ETF holdings remain a bright spot. Global gold ETFs added 42 tons in May, the fifth consecutive month of inflows, bringing year-to-date inflows to 198 tons. The World Gold Council reports that central banks added 48 tons in April, with China extending its 18-month buying streak.
Physical premiums in key markets are steady. Indian gold premiums held at $1.50–2.00/oz over London, while Chinese premiums compressed to $0.50–1.00/oz as wedding season demand tapered. Shanghai Gold Exchange withdrawals reached 52 tons in May, down 8% month-on-month but still 12% higher YoY.
Layer coverage at $4,200–$4,180/oz. The dollar rally may be overdone — September cut odds could recover quickly on soft CPI data. Structure hedges in 3-month forward contracts while waiting for a clearer rate signal.